Super Bowl odds: how to read them on prediction markets
On a prediction market, Super Bowl odds are prices: each team has a contract that pays $1 if it wins, and its price (1¢ to 99¢) is the market’s implied chance of that happening. A team at 15¢ is priced at about 15%, the same as +567 at a sportsbook. This page explains how to read and compare those prices for Super Bowl LXI. We don’t show live odds; check each platform for current prices.
Super Bowl LXI at a glance
Super Bowl LXI is on Sunday, February 14, 2027, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, per the NFL’s 2026-27 calendar. The AFC and NFC Championship Games are on January 31, 2027. The last Super Bowl, LX on February 8, 2026, went to the Seattle Seahawks, who beat the New England Patriots 29-13.
Super Bowl Sunday is now a huge event for prediction markets. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told CNBC that Kalshi recorded more than $1 billion in trading volume on Super Bowl LX Sunday, a company figure reported by PYMNTS. Independent tracker DeFi Rate counted $1.63 billion across Kalshi and Polymarket for the event.
How prediction-market Super Bowl odds work
On Kalshi, Polymarket US or Robinhood, the Super Bowl winner market is a set of yes/no contracts, one per team. Kalshi’s CFTC filing for these contracts describes “a one-dollar notional value” with prices from $0.01 to $0.99. Polymarket US puts it simply: the price “represents the market’s collective belief about how likely an outcome is.” If you buy a team at 15¢ and they win, you get $1 per contract. If they don’t, you get nothing. You can also sell at any point before the game, which sportsbook futures usually don’t allow except through a cash-out offer.
Converting Super Bowl odds: our quick-reference table
The maths is simple, so we’ve done it for the prices you’ll see most:
| Prediction-market price | Implied probability | American odds | Decimal odds | Profit on $100 if it wins (before fees) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ | 5% | +1900 | 20.00 | $1,900 |
| 10¢ | 10% | +900 | 10.00 | $900 |
| 15¢ | 15% | +567 | 6.67 | $567 |
| 20¢ | 20% | +400 | 5.00 | $400 |
| 25¢ | 25% | +300 | 4.00 | $300 |
| 33¢ | 33% | +203 | 3.03 | $203 |
| 50¢ | 50% | +100 / −100 | 2.00 | $100 |
| 60¢ | 60% | −150 | 1.67 | $67 |
The formulas: for a price p under 50¢, American odds = +(1 − p) ÷ p × 100. For a sportsbook line, negative odds −X imply X ÷ (X + 100), and positive odds +X imply 100 ÷ (X + 100). For example, −150 implies 60% and +550 implies about 15.4%.
Sportsbook vig vs exchange fees
A sportsbook builds its margin, the vig, into the odds. On a two-way bet at −110 each side, the implied probabilities add up to 104.76%, so roughly 4.5% is the book’s hold. On a 32-team Super Bowl futures board the total is typically well above 100%. To see a sportsbook’s “fair” odds, divide each team’s implied probability by the board’s total.
A prediction market has no built-in overround. Instead you pay the bid/ask spread (the gap between buying and selling prices) and a published fee. On 100 contracts at 10¢, a long-shot contender, each platform’s published rule gives:
| Platform | Fee rule for Super Bowl futures | Fee on 100 contracts at 10¢ |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (taker) | 0.07 × C × P × (1 − P), rounded up | $0.63 |
| Polymarket US (taker) | 0.0695 × C × P × (1 − P) | $0.63 |
| Novig (futures taker) | 0.06 × C × P × (1 − P); makers free | $0.54 |
| ProphetX | 2% of net gains, only if you win | $1.80 if it wins; $0 if not |
| Robinhood (no Gold) | Commission up to $0.01 + exchange fee up to $0.01 per contract | up to $1.90 |
Fees matter less than price on a futures bet. Before trading, compare the after-fee payout on the same team across two or three platforms. Our Kalshi fees guide explains the fee formulas in detail.
Super Bowl market types
Beyond the winner market, platforms list conference champions (AFC and NFC), the exact Super Bowl matchup, Super Bowl MVP, regular-season MVP, playoff qualifiers, division winners and team win totals. Once the teams are set, game-day markets cover moneyline, spread, total, quarters and halves, and player props. Kalshi and Robinhood also list novelty markets such as the halftime show headliner. Kalshi titles these “Pro Football” markets rather than using the league’s trademarks.
Where you can trade Super Bowl odds legally
Super Bowl contracts are listed on CFTC-regulated platforms, but sports contracts face state limits. As of October 17, 2026:
- Kalshi lists a Super Bowl series (KXSB). Court orders block its sports contracts in Nevada, Washington and Michigan (see is Kalshi legal).
- Polymarket US lists a “2027 Pro Football Champion” market. Its App Store listing says trading is unavailable in Nevada.
- Robinhood lists a “2027 Pro Football Championship” market. Sports contracts aren’t available to Maryland or Nevada residents, and Michigan residents can’t open new ones.
- Novig and ProphetX offer sports futures. Check their apps for Super Bowl listings. Novig is 21+ and unavailable in Nevada, Arizona and Michigan.
- DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts generally offer sports contracts only in states where they don’t run sportsbooks. See our DraftKings Predictions review.
Always use the app’s location check, and see our prediction market legality tracker for your state.
Frequently asked questions
When is Super Bowl LXI?
Sunday, February 14, 2027, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, per the NFL's 2026-27 calendar. The AFC and NFC Championship Games are on January 31, 2027.
How do I read Super Bowl odds on Kalshi or Polymarket?
Each team has a Yes contract priced between 1¢ and 99¢ that pays $1 if that team wins. The price is roughly the market's implied probability: a team at 15¢ is priced at about a 15% chance, equivalent to about +567 in American odds.
Are prediction-market Super Bowl odds better than sportsbook odds?
Often, but not always. A sportsbook builds its margin into the odds, so the implied probabilities across all 32 teams add up to more than 100%. On an exchange you pay the spread and a separate, published fee instead. Compare the after-fee payout for the same team before you trade.
Where can I legally trade Super Bowl contracts?
On CFTC-regulated platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket US and Robinhood, subject to state limits. As of October 2026, court orders block Kalshi's sports contracts in Nevada, Washington and Michigan; Polymarket US is unavailable in Nevada; Robinhood's sports contracts aren't available in Maryland or Nevada. Check the app where you are.
Sources
- NFL — 2026-27 important dates (Super Bowl LXI, February 14, 2027)
- NFL — SoFi Stadium approved to host Super Bowl LXI
- Seahawks.com — Seahawks win Super Bowl LX, 29-13
- CFTC — Kalshi self-certification of championship winner contracts (January 22, 2025)
- Kalshi public API — Super Bowl series (KXSB)
- Polymarket US Docs — Market data (prices as probabilities)
- Polymarket US Docs — Fees
- Robinhood — NFL season outcomes prediction markets
- Robinhood Support — Event contracts overview
- Novig Help Center — Fees on Novig (futures)
- ProphetX — Trading fees
- PYMNTS — Kalshi records $1 billion-plus in Super Bowl trading volume (February 10, 2026; secondary)
- DeFi Rate — Super Bowl prediction market volume breakdown (February 13, 2026; secondary)
- Nevada Gaming Control Board — Kalshi sports prediction market shut down in Nevada
- Washington Attorney General — Kalshi ordered to cease Washington operations (August 13, 2026)
Last checked:
18+ (21+ where required). Prediction markets involve risk of loss — only trade what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET (National Problem Gambling Helpline, 24/7).
Last updated 2026-10-17. Not financial or betting advice.