Kalshi odds explained (plus Polymarket odds and Fed rate odds)
Kalshi odds are just prices. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens, so a Yes price of 70¢ means the market puts it at about a 70% chance. Polymarket odds work the same way. What differs between the two is how the number on screen is derived, the fees and the exact question being asked. This guide explains how to read Kalshi and Polymarket odds, and how Fed rate odds markets work, as of October 2026. We don’t show live prices.
How Kalshi odds work
Kalshi’s help centre puts it simply: “If the market consensus is that there’s a 70% chance of the launch happening, the contract price for ‘Yes’ would be 70 cents, while the contract price for ‘No’ would be 30 cents.” A Yes buyer and a No seller together always put up $1.
Three things worth knowing:
- There’s a bid and an ask. The order book shows “bids, the maximum price a buyer is willing to pay… or asks, the minimum price that a member is willing to sell that contract for.” If Yes is bid at 71¢ and offered at 74¢, the “true” odds sit somewhere in that range, and you’ll pay 74¢ to buy now.
- Buying Yes is selling No. Kalshi says “there’s no inherent difference between buying a Yes contract and selling a No contract.” A Yes bid at X is the same as a No ask at $1 − X.
- Odds aren’t facts. Kalshi notes its price graph doesn’t “offer absolute probabilities. Instead, they represent the consensus beliefs of market participants.”
Kalshi’s help centre doesn’t say whether the ”% chance” shown in the app is the last trade, the midpoint or the ask, so look at the order book before trading size.
How Polymarket odds work
Polymarket US lets you “select Price (¢) or Percent (%).” Both show the same information. Its market-data docs read $0.25 as “the market thinks there’s roughly a 25% chance.” One documented detail matters when you compare platforms: Polymarket US’s API says the Yes display price is “normally derived from the best ask,” and the Yes and No display prices “can sum to more than 1 because they preserve the bid-ask spread.” In other words, the number you see is close to what it costs to buy, not a midpoint.
Reading any prediction-market odds: our four-step check
Price to odds conversion
| Price | Implied chance | American odds | Decimal odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | 10% | +900 | 10.00 |
| 25¢ | 25% | +300 | 4.00 |
| 40¢ | 40% | +150 | 2.50 |
| 50¢ | 50% | ±100 | 2.00 |
| 60¢ | 60% | −150 | 1.67 |
| 75¢ | 75% | −300 | 1.33 |
| 90¢ | 90% | −900 | 1.11 |
Why Kalshi and Polymarket odds differ for the same event
- Different display rules. Polymarket US’s display price is based on the best ask. Kalshi doesn’t document its rule. A wide spread alone can open a gap of several points.
- Fees. Both charge takers a fee shaped like price × (1 − price), with coefficients of 0.07 on Kalshi and 0.0695 on Polymarket US. See our Kalshi fees guide.
- Different questions. This is the big one, especially for the Fed (see below). Two markets that sound alike often settle on different thresholds, dates or sources.
- Liquidity. “More liquid markets usually have tighter spreads,” as Polymarket’s docs say. Thin markets move further on small orders.
Fed rate odds: how the markets work
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026. Its remaining 2026 meetings are October 27–28 and December 8–9, per the Fed’s calendar. Prediction markets list several ways to trade each decision:
| Market | What it asks | How it settles |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi “Fed funds rate” (KXFED) | A ladder of markets: “Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above X% following the Fed’s [date] meeting?” in 0.25-point steps | The upper bound published on the Federal Reserve’s website after that meeting |
| Kalshi “Fed meeting” (KXFEDDECISION) | One outcome per decision: cut >25bp, cut 25bp, hold, hike 25bp, hike >25bp | Federal Reserve; a cancelled meeting resolves to “Fed maintains rate” |
| Polymarket US “Fed Decision in October” | Hike 50+, hike 25, no change, cut 25, cut 50+ | Changes between options are rounded to the nearest listed option, with halfway cases rounded away from zero |
| Polymarket US “Fed Rate Cut in 2026?” and similar | Whether any cut or hike happens in the year | Counts scheduled and “unscheduled or emergency meetings” |
How to read a Kalshi Fed ladder
Because KXFED markets each ask “above X%,” they aren’t mutually exclusive. To get the market’s chance that the rate lands in one specific band, subtract neighbouring prices: chance of the upper bound being exactly Y = price of “above (Y − 0.25)%” − price of “above Y%.” Polymarket’s “end of 2027” Fed market, by contrast, asks whether the rate is “greater than or equal to” a level on December 31, 2027, so its odds aren’t directly comparable with Kalshi’s meeting-by-meeting ladder.
Fed rate odds vs CME FedWatch
CME Group’s FedWatch tool is the traditional benchmark. According to third-party explainers of CME’s methodology (CME’s own pages blocked our access), it backs out probabilities from 30-day fed funds futures prices, assuming 25-basis-point moves. Prediction markets ask directly about the decision. FedWatch infers it from interest-rate futures that institutions trade in far larger size. When the two disagree, contract wording and liquidity are the first things to check.
Where to trade
No court order we found blocks Kalshi’s economics markets, including Fed contracts. Washington’s order expressly leaves economics and finance available. See Is Kalshi legal? and Kalshi vs Polymarket to choose a platform. For sports odds, see our Super Bowl odds guide.
Frequently asked questions
How do Kalshi odds work?
Kalshi odds are contract prices. A Yes contract priced at 70¢ pays $1 if the event happens, so the market is putting it at roughly a 70% chance. Kalshi's help centre: 'If the market consensus is that there's a 70% chance… the contract price for Yes would be 70 cents, while… No would be 30 cents.'
Are Polymarket odds the same as Kalshi odds?
They work the same way, with prices from $0 to $1 read as probabilities, but the numbers can differ. Polymarket US's API docs say its displayed Yes price is 'normally derived from the best ask', and the platforms differ on fees, liquidity and the exact wording of the question. Compare like for like before reading anything into a gap.
What are Fed rate odds?
They're market-implied probabilities of what the Federal Reserve will do at its next meeting, from prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket or, traditionally, from CME FedWatch, which is based on fed funds futures. The next FOMC meetings in 2026 are October 27–28 and December 8–9.
Can I convert Kalshi odds to American odds?
Yes. For a price p below 50¢, American odds = +(1 − p) ÷ p × 100, so 25¢ is +300. Above 50¢, American odds = −p ÷ (1 − p) × 100, so 75¢ is −300. We didn't find an American-odds setting in Kalshi's help centre; Polymarket US offers cents or percent.
Sources
- Kalshi Help Center — How are prices determined?
- Kalshi Help Center — The order book
- Kalshi Help Center — Buying Yes vs selling No
- Kalshi Help Center — Price graph
- Kalshi API docs — Order book responses
- Kalshi public API — Fed funds rate series (KXFED) and Fed meeting series (KXFEDDECISION)
- Polymarket US Docs — Odds display
- Polymarket US API docs — Price history (display price derived from best ask)
- Polymarket US Docs — Market data
- Polymarket US Docs — Spread
- Federal Reserve — FOMC meeting calendars
- Federal Reserve — FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
- CME Group — FedWatch tool
Last checked:
18+ (21+ where required). Prediction markets involve risk of loss — only trade what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-MY-RESET (National Problem Gambling Helpline, 24/7).
Last updated 2026-10-17. Not financial or betting advice.